The Bracket Breakdown: Midwest and West

So for the past two NCAA Tournaments I’ve broken out my March Madness Manifesto, which was unoriginal, unfunny and took way to much time to write. So this year I’m just going to breakdown each bracket individually. I’ll be ranking the teams in each bracket from 16-1, with 16 being the worst and 1 being the team I expect to advance to the Final Four. Simple enough, right? Well today I’ll break down the Midwest and West Region, tomorrow I’ll breakdown the East and South brackets. Before I get to dissecting the brackets here are a couple of questions and observations I’ve made while staring at my bracket for the past four hours:

- I’m not upset about Arizona’s seed or draw, but if Butler’s a 5 seed and Duke and Vanderbilt are 6 seeds then my beloved Wildcats are a 7 at the very f*cking worst. Then again when you’ve sh*t the bed for the past three months the way the Wildcats have, you really have no one to blame but yourself.
- Texas A&M and UCLA both got the elite 8 handed to them on a silver platter. Neither team has a tough match up until the elite 8. And if the top seeds out of their respected brackets don’t make it that far then neither team will have a rough game until the Final Four. Another bang up job by the selection committee.
- On paper the best match up of the tournament looks to be Kevin Durant vs. UNC in the Sweet 16. Should be similar to last years Washington-UConn game, best player (Brandon Roy) in the tournament going against the best team in the tournament. Yep looks pretty similar to me and it probably will be, right down to the screw job by the refs. I’m just not sure which team the refs will be pulling for.
- How the hell did Arkansas make it in to the tourney? I have a theory that when the committee gets down to the last few at-large bids they just close their eyes and throw a dart at a board that has numerous bubble teams on it and whichever team the dart lands on gets a bid. That’s really the only plausible explanation for the Razorbacks inclusion into the field of 65.

Midwest:

16. Jackson State – Despite having the nation’s second leading scorer, Trey Johnson, the Tiger’s don’t stand a chance against Florida. JSU also shoots 31% from beyond the arc, which isn’t all that surprising considering they’re Lindsey Hunter’s alma mater.

15. Texas A&M Corpus Christi – I have a special place in my heart for this team, because my mother was born in Corpus Christi. Yet the other Texas A&M doesn’t stand a chance against Wisconsin. Interesting fact that the announcers will repeatedly tell the poor souls stuck watching this game: Texas A&M C.C. didn’t even have a basketball team 8 years ago. And believe me when I say that fact is completely relevant when discussing their current team.

14. Miami (OH) – Now I know what you’re thinking, “Hey you’re just ranking the teams by their seed.” Well, thus far you have as legit point, but that’ll change soon, I promise. Anyhow, you think a kid getting recruited by Miami (OH) ever covers up the Ohio on the letter and psyches himself out, thinking “No way, Miami* is recruiting me!”. These are the things I wonder. That and whether or not coaches still send letters to recruits.

13. Purdue – Let’s look at Purdue’s credentials: The Boilermakers (side note, wtf is a Boilermaker) are 16-1 at home and 6-10 everywhere else. They have a plethora of embarrassing road losses include at Iowa. That’s the same Iowa which is a team that ASU beat soundly. ASU, owners of 9 wins this year. I think it’s safe to say that Purdue doesn’t belong in the tournament and that even this clusterf*ck of a U of A team should hand them their asses.

12. Butler – As previously noted, Bulter has absolutely no right to be a 5 seed. As far as I can tell there are only two logical explanations for their seeding: Either the committee penciled them in as a five in December and was to lazy to change it or the committee knows that a 12 seed always upsets a 5 so they decided to give everyone a gimmie. That said, AJ Graves is one of my favorite colligate players (more on this tomorrow)

11. Davidson – I really wanted to have Davidson be my upset special and have them face 12 seeded Old Dominion in the second round, but then I realized something: I’m pretty sure I pick a 13-12 seed second round match up every year and I feel equally as certain that said match up has never materialized. Therefore I decided to pick Maryland over Davidson, although it should be a great game.

10. Notre Dame – ND looked really good in the first few months of the season, but they haven’t done anything of note since December. In ’07 the Irish have just beaten most of the teams they should have (with the exceptions of St’ Johns and South Florida) and lost to the teams they should have. Apparently the committee didn’t realize that this team is extremely mediocre. Oh well, maybe well get shots of Brady Quinn in the stands during their first round exit.

9. Georgia Tech – The Yellow Jackets are a chic Sweet 16 pick. All they have to do is beat UNLV and a Wisconsin team that is obviously one of the weaker high rated teams. Well I never like to go with popular upset picks and I think GT is too young to make any real noise this year.

8. UNLV – Proof that the committee only uses tools like RPI only when it suits them. The Runnin’ Rebels have a Top 10 RPI and won their conference tournament, but still ended up with this crappy seed. I know the committee says they don’t weigh the conference tournament that heavily but I think Oregon, Arkansas, Kansas, UCLA and countless others would beg to differ. The committee only uses the conference tournament and RPI when it suits them. UNLV got screwed out of a high seed and we the viewing and gambling public got screwed out of UNLV being a high seed, because they would have been an easy upset pick. Anyways, they’ll squeak by in round one before losing to the depleted Badgers.

7. Maryland – I’m sorry to break this to you, but the ACC is vastly overrated this year. I know that appears to be blasphemy, but it’s true. I’m too lazy to look up facts to back up my point, so you’re just going to have to trust me on this one.

6. Arizona – The U of A should roll over a Purdue team that has no right to be in the tourney. So what will it take for the U of A to beat Florida(or more accurately give Florida a decent game)? Well for starters Mustafa Shakur will have to play like he did for the first few months of the season, Jawaan McClean’s knee will have to miraculously heal up and he’ll have to have an outstanding shooting night. Jordan Hill will have to play the game of his young life and Ivan Radenovic will have to remember to show up. That and Marcus Williams needs to shoot well, play great d and not turn the ball over every other time he touches it. That and it would help if someone leaked a tape of Billy Donavan saying that he prefers intercourse with Al Horford as oppose to Joakim Noah, because Noah always wants to cuddle afterwards. So yeah that’s pretty much no chance at all. But my Arizona brethren, don’t let this Wildcat team ruin the best three weeks of sports for you, they’re really not worth it.

5. Winthrop – I really like this Winthrop team, but something about them makes me uneasy. It’s probably the fact that everyone is saying that they’re this years George Mason. If that means their head coach acts just like a sitcom dad in interviews then I’m onboard. However I don’t think they’ll get past Oregon.

4. Old Dominion – This is a mid-major that’s the quintessential upset team. They start 5 upper classmen, hit 3’s at a reasonable percentage, they’re top scorer is a power forward who’s at his best when facing the basket, they’re athletic enough to defend and they can hit the boards. Pretty much every ingredient needed to pull of an upset or two they have. Unfortunately their run will end with a 20+ point loss to Florida.

3. Wisconsin – I thought Wisconsin was overrated all year and they’ve played awful since they lost Brian Butch to that horrific looking elbow injury. That said I don’t trust any of the teams in their pod to knock them off before the Sweet 16. Oregon, however, will send them home.

2. Oregon – Almost no team relies on one player as heavily as the Ducks rely on Aaron Brooks. When Brooks is at the top of his game, slashing, hitting 3’s from 5 feet behind the arc and creating shots for his teammates the Ducks can play with anyone. When Brooks is slumping, as he did midway through the Pac-10 season, Oregon can lose to anyone. I think Brooks is going to have a great tourney, until he has to be guarded by Cory Brewer. At that point he and his team will loose, badly.

1. Florida – There’s only two ways to beat the Gators this year: 1.) If their too hung over to play hard. And 2.) If there coach tells a reporter that the team’s leader (Noah) is going to be a bust in the NBA and that Al Horford will be a much better pro and then that reporter unknowingly tells the nation this, thus causing a huge rift in the team. The only way the Gators don’t repeat as Champs this April is if they get clipped by someone in the first couple rounds when they’re not paying attention, which I really don’t think will happen.

West:
16. Florida A&M/Niagara – I feel really bad for the teams that are forced to play in the play-in game. It’s just unfair. It’s like having two small animals fight each other to the death before throwing them in a room with a blood thirsty lion who has eaten in a week. 16 seeds have little to no chance at beating a 1 seed anyway, but that chance becomes onsolete if they have to play a game 2-3 days earlier. I think they should do away with the play-in game and just let both teams play a half each against Kansas or whichever number 1 seed. Or Florida A&M and Niagara could combine their teams roster to create a “Super Sweet 16” seed. Now that’s a 16-1 match up that I’d like to watch.

15. Weber State – Weber almost blew a 20 point lead to NAU in the Big Sky Conference Finals. They’ve learned from their mistake and won’t let a big lead slip away again. Unfortunately Weber probably won’t lead at all against UCLA.

14. Illinois – Sweet Jebus did the Selection Committee overrate the Big 10. This is another team that shouldn’t be in the tourney, seeing as how they’re best wins are against Bradley, Michigan State and IUPUI. Seriously though, if your best wins are against other bubble teams and the best team you beat in your out of conference schedule was Missouri do you really belong in the tournament? Um, no.

13. Holy Cross – There’s a conspiracy theory going around that says the Selection Committee pitted mid-major’s against each other to protect power conference teams from embarrassing upsets. Holy Cross facing off against Southern Illinois is one of the strongest arguments for that theory. The Crusaders are a very scary 13 seed, but I like SIU to beat them in one of the best first round games.

12. Kentucky – Unless the Wildcats make it to the sweet 16 it looks like the Tubby Smith Era is done in Lexington. This team is very good defensively and mediocre at best offensively. In other words, they’re a typical Tubby Smith team. There game with Villanova is basically a toss up, but I’ll give Nova the edge because I’m mildly infatuated by their Freshman point guard Scottie Reynolds.

11. Indiana – With Eric Gordon arriving on campus next year this should be the lowest seed the Hoosiers get for a few years. But that’s next year and the Big 10 was/is awful this year, so I think the ‘Zags will knock them out in round one.

10. Duke – The Blue Devils got an undeserving seed and a great draw for a 6 seed. I’m just hoping that the Basketball Gods are just and send Coach K and his AMEX card packing in round one.

9. Pittsburg – The Panthers scored 17 points in the first half of the Big East Championship game. Seventeen points. In 20 minutes. For those of you scoring at home, that’s absolutely f*cking terrible. During the Ben Howland/Jamie Dixion Era Pitt has been the Oakland A’s of College basketball. They’re great in the regular season and completely worthless in the post-season. While Pitt plays great D, they’d struggle to score against a wheelchair basketball team. They may get by Wright State, but I’d bet my life they won’t be playing in the tournament’s second weekend.

8. Villanova – As I mentioned before I have a decent sized man crush on Scottie Reynolds. He’s one of the most underrated Freshman in the country. I think he’ll be an absolute beast next year and a fringe All-American for the rest of his colligate career. Still though, Nova will probably see their season end at the hands of Kansas. But personally I’ll be rooting for Curtis Sumpter, who deserves a deep tourney run after missing out on last years run due to injuries.

7. Wright State – Most people think Aaron Gray and Pitt’s frontline will dominate the Raiders undersize front line, I’m not buying it. Pitt may blow up and score 30 points in a half, but DaShaun Woods will be the best player on the court during that game so I’ll side with him. However Woods supporting cast isn’t good enough to get him to the tourney’s second weekend.

6. Gonzaga – The ‘Zags have never cared much for defensive, but this team is absolutely preposterous on that end of the floor. Still though Derick Ravio, despite looking like a 5’10 penis, won’t let his team lose in the 1st round. However they’ll get killed by UCLA in the round two in a very boring rematch of one of last year’s best tournament games.

5. Virginia Tech – Sticking with the ACC is overrated theme, I expect the Hookies to bow out in round two. This team isn’t very strong when they’re forced them to play in the half court, which SIU will force them to do. While Zabian Dowdell is a great player, SIU has a defense that can contain him and I don’t trust anyone on of his supporting cast to carry this team when Dowdell has an off night.

4. Virginia Commonwealth – Let’s see VCU is a pressing/trapping team, Greg Paulus is Duke’s point guard. This can’t end well for the Blue Devils. What’s the over/under for turnovers Paulus and McRoberts have this game? 30? Eric Maynor is one of the country’s best point guards; his teams only real weakness is interior defense. While DaShaun Woods and co. should give the Rams all they can handle, they won’t face a team that can expose their interior d until the Sweet 16. However turnovers are few and far between for UCLA’s back court of Darren Collison and Aaron Afflalo, so VCU should be done in then.

3. Southern Illinois – For my money the Salukis are the strongest 4 seed this side of Kevin Durant. They’re also better then a couple of the 2-3 seeds in other brackets. Unfortunately they’re going up against a Kansas team that is, in my opinion, a very poor match up for them. Kansas should dominate the Salukis undersized frontline. However, Bill Self is Kansas’s coach (more on this below), so I guess the Salukis (that’s a fun word to type and say) have a shot.

2. Kansas – As you’ve probably figured out or heard by now, Kansas is the deepest and most talented team in college basketball. They’re seemingly the logical pick to win it all, but they’ve got two factors working against them. 1.) They’re very young. They go 9-10 deep and only three of those players are upperclassmen and they’re all role players. And 2.) Bill Self is their coach. Now I know this seems a little harsh, but Self has yet to prove himself as a tourney coach. He’s actually yet to prove he can develop his great recruits, but that’s a story for another day. I for one will never understand how Self let a team with Wayne Simien, Aaron Miles and Keith Langford as Seniors bow out in the first round. I don’t care if they weren’t his “guys”, that shouldn’t happen. Also last years team, even when you factor in their youth, looked woeful in their first round exit. Either way the Jayhawks have enough talent to get to at least the Elite 8 despite their coach. Still I don’t think it matters who their coach is. They’re not beating UCLA in a glorified home game for the Bruins in the round of 8.

1. UCLA – If you compare the Bruins from this year and last year it’s hard to fathom that they’re actually better this year, regardless of what they do in the tournament. They lost three starters and Luc Richard Mhadadsajkdhaskjdhsak, um the guy who’s a prince and has a weird African last name, has greatly regressed in his sophomore season. So how are the Bruins better this year? Well it all boils down to the best back court in the nation, Darren Collison and Aaron Afflalo. Collison is simply the best point guard in the NCAA’s, unless you consider Acie Law a point guard. He seamlessly creates shots for all his teammates, knows just when to get them the ball and never puts his teammates in a bad situation. As for Afflalo, well he’s more then earned his PAC-10 POY honors. He’s one of the best defenders in the nation and has taken and hit every big shot the Bruins have needed him to (with the exception of the last two games). Lead by their back court the Bruins play some of the nation’s best defense, have a slew of role players who can all produce when called upon and all their games will be in the state of California. Needless to same I feel safest picking them to go to the Final Four.

Well that’s it for today. Check back Wednesday or early Thursday Morning for the East and South breakdown.

Until We Meet Again
* Or for those of you in the known, The U.